We are now into October and I have a full enough set of figures for coronavirus infection, hospital admissions, and deaths over September this year. You will find them at the end of this first section of the blogpost.
What conclusions do I draw?
What conclusions do you come to?
Are we in agreement?
|Cummings and Johnson - the architects of the UK coronavirus pandemic|
I would like to preface my judgement call by referencing some headlines I noticed in the 'i' newspaper this past week:
On Tuesday 28 September, I noted this:
Two-thirds of Britons now have Covid jabs
The article beneath went on to say that Canada, Chile, Singapore, Italy, Belgium, Ireland, and Spain are among those countries who have already beaten the UK to this milestone. Portugal however leads the world with 84% cent of its population having had two doses. Note we are not exactly world-beating even in the prized area of the vaccine roll-out.
That same day, I also noticed this:
Infection warning as rules change
Underneath, I read that the number of patients contracting coronavirus in hospitals is likely to rise now NHS executives have been told by the UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) [I promise I am notinventing this!] that patients can now be cared for one metre rather than two metres apart, allowing more beds to be used in wards. Hospitals can also re-adopt standard rather than enhanced cleaning procedures.
And on Wednesday 29 September, this headline caught my eye:
700,000 extra deaths recorded
In fact, this is a mistake. It should read 70,000 extra deaths recorded - however, I fear that when the carnage is so enormous a Freudian slip is only too understandable. More than 70,000 extra deaths have taken place in private homes in England and Wales since the start of the pandemic. Extra deaths - known as "excess deaths" - are the number of deaths above the average for the corresponding period in the non-pandemic years of 2015-19. A total of 70,602 excess deaths in homes in England and Wales were registered in 2020-21, Note this does not include deaths in homes in Scotland and Northern Ireland. The matter is not spelt out [I wonder why?] but the conclusion is obvious. These are deaths linked to COVID-19 that have taken place outside hospitals.
A video guide to the transmission of COVID-19 produced by the WHO
AND SO TO THE SUMMARY OF MY CONCLUSIONS:
- The PM of the UK got it horribly wrong the moment he heard of a threat of a pandemic on the horizon in January 2020. High as a kite on his election triumph in December 2019, he thought he was invincible. English, sorry British, exceptionalism would mean that we had nothing to worry about. I am reminded of another PM - Cameron - who showed a similar conviction that things couldn't possibly go against him when he decided to have a referendum in 2015 on the 'Europe - leave/remain' issue. I see these fatal errors of judgement as stemming from the arrogance of men who believe they have been born to lead. Their natural right to do so precludes error.
- Having failed to take the actions to stop the spread of the virus once it had arrived, the UK premier, hand in glove with his special advisor, Dominic Cummings, and leading members of the medical and scientific establishment, then tried to establish herd immunity - before any vaccine protection had been developed.
- Two waves of extreme infection followed, leading to two lockdowns - before the vaccines offered a way to mitigate these patterns of death and ill-health that have led to over 150,000 unnecessary deaths.
- We are now in the stage of virus 'management' where the question becomes 'What is an acceptable level of yearly excess death from this virus?' Johnson seems to have settled on a ceiling of 50,000 deaths per annum - see my earlier blogs, using this link here. Our present rate of deaths in hospital from COVID-19 have risen through September from a 7-day rolling average of 106 (1st September) to 135 (7 September) to 138 (14 September) to 144 (21 September) and are now down to 131 (28 September), under the 137 deaths a day which Johnson has decided is an 'acceptable' ceiling figure.
- These mortality figures will be linked to the numbers being infected 4-6 weeks previously. It is ominous that yesterday Friday's 'i' carried the headline: Figures reveal Covid-19 is on the rise in England'.
- We don't hear much about the daily death toll now in the media. We certainly do not have access to the details about the age, ethnicity, social class, et al. of those who are being hospitalised and those who are dying. We did get this information in the first two waves of the pandemic. Why not now as this third wave takes its shape? The answer is surely obvious. This is no oversight. This is calculated concealment. It will be for the most part the poor, the weak and the vulnerable who are the victims - and they are dispensable. The market demands a return to normality, only this time with around 50,000 extra deaths a year. Deaths within the ranks of the hoi polloi don't matter quite so much.
The September statistics:
Cases Admissions Deaths
Wed 1 September 32,181 (+5,705) 901 (-42) 50 (+2)
Thu 2 September 35,693 (+3,512) 842 (-74) 207 (+157)
Fri 3 September 38,154 (+2,461) 848 (+1) 178 (-29)
Sat 4 September 42,076 (+3,922) 985 (+136) 121 (-57)
Sun 5 September - the 'i' is not published on a Sunday
Mon 6 September 37,011 985 68
Tue 7 September 41,192 988 45
Wed 8 September 37,489 905 209
Thu 9 September 38,975 933 191
Fri 10 September 38,013 863 167
Sat 11 September 37,622 1,063 147
Sun 12 September - the 'i' is not published on a Sunday
Mon 13 September 29,173 1,073 56
Tue 14 September 30,825 1,076 61
Wed 15 September 26,628 1,009 185
Thu 16 September 30,597 936* 201
Fri 17 September 26, 911 836* 158
Sat 18 September 32,651 909 178
Sun 19 September - the 'i' is not published on a Sunday
Mon 20 September 29,612 932 56
Tue 21 September 36,100 930 49 (144: 7-day rolling average)
Wed 22 September 31,564 741 203 (144: 7-day rolling average)
Thu 23 September 34,460 747 166 (139: 7-day rolling average)
Fri 24 September 36,710 714 182 (143: 7-day rolling average)
Sat 25 September 35,623 794 180 (143: 7-day rolling average)
In conclusion, let me share with you thoughts from Joan Twelves of the Zero Covid Campaign that appeared in a Morning Star article on Monday 27 September, 2021.
- It is unprecedented in the modern era for government policy to allow preventable deaths of its own citizenry on a mass scale.
- We do not live with cholera, we do not live with polio, we do not live with tuberculosis, and we do not live with typhoid.
- Like all these diseases, COVID-19 can be managed and community transmission eliminated.
- Why should we accept a strategy which not only allows but actually encourages people to spread a virulent and deadly disease?
- One-third of us have not had two jabs; one-fifth of us have not had one vaccination.
- Vaccination is not enough in any case. It must be backed up by a range of mandatory mitigation measures which focus on protection and support rather than restrictions on activities.
- They include an effective, local and fully funded find, test, trace, isolate and support programme run by the NHS and local authorities - with all workplaces, including schools, colleges, and hospitality venues, being made Covid-safe - and with continuing precautionary measures such as self-isolation, social distancing, handwashing, mask-wearing and good ventilation.
- A global pandemic requires global vaccination. This virus will bite back, big-time. Just wait and see.